Russia, China: Training to Fight Together Against Potential Enemies
August 16, 2005 14 02 GMT
Summary
With their upcoming joint military exercises, Beijing and Moscow will send
signals to the United States that Washington will not want to see -- the
potential of close Sino-Russian military and political cooperation and the
possibility of China's increased ability to complicate U.S. naval operations in
its waters. Though the exercises do not indicate an upcoming Chinese invasion of
Taiwan, they are a major step in training China's forces to achieve such a goal
-- a fact that will not be lost on Taipei. The exercises will not only lead
Russia and China's allies to feel they have solid protection, they also will
result in China's acquiring more advanced Russian military hardware, and Russian
and Chinese officers and troops will gain experience by working together. Though
the upcoming exercises are very different from the original plan, they signal a
burgeoning military interoperability that could be needed elsewhere -- perhaps
in Central Asia -- to prevent another pro-Western "revolution."
Analysis
Russia and China will conduct military exercises, called Peace Mission 2005,
from Aug. 18 to 26 under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The maneuvers represent a qualitative leap in the countries' military ties and
overall strategic partnership, advancing them toward a strategic alliance and
signaling that they could conduct joint military operations in the future. The
exercises will be the largest in the history of Sino-Russian training and will
involve "the most modern Russian weapon systems and a large number of troop
units and weapons of our Chinese partners," Russian President Vladimir
Putin told Xinhua.
The multi-purpose exercises' goals are ambitious indeed. The key military goals
include learning how both nations' troops and staffs can coordinate on the
battlefield in any conflict they jointly fight -- which entails learning about
the interoperability of their respective weapons and tactics. Other goals are to
advance capabilities on both sides -- especially China -- for contingency
planning, such as preparing their forces to fight in conflicts that are off the
table now but for which general staffs are always planning -- such as a Chinese
invasion of Taiwan -- in case geopolitical circumstances change.
The exercises' key political goals are to warn
Washington to stop pushing both Russia and China, or face the possibility of
an eventual joint military response. This not only forces pro-U.S. governments
-- from Tokyo to Taipei and some former Soviet Union (FSU) regimes -- to
consider whether being solidly pro-U.S. and playing against the two Asian Giants
is in their best interest, it also assures China and Russia's allies that the
two countries' military umbrella is strong enough to ward off a U.S.
geopolitical offensive.
To reinforce the seriousness of the two countries' shared intentions to counter
the U.S. geopolitical offensive in their region, Russian and Chinese defense
ministers will observe the live-fire part of the exercises -- and, as he has
done before, Putin could make a surprise appearance and join Chinese President
Hu Jintao to observe the exercises. Other SCO members' defense ministers are
also invited observers. The United States, for obvious reasons, will send
observers to the exercises. China and Russia's extension of an invitation to
Washington was meant as a friendly move, but Washington will watch nervously and
try to determine how strong the Russian forces still are and how strong the
Chinese will become, along with how serious both countries are about military
cooperation.
Eighteen hundred Russian troops and staff members will participate in Peace
Mission 2005, as will two Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers, four long-range
Tu-22M3 bombers, two Tu-22MR reconnaissance aircraft and up to six of Russia's
newest Su-27SM multi-purpose jets. About 10 other aircraft -- including
long-range Il-76 transportation, air-refueling and early-warning aircraft --
also will be involved. The Russian Navy will be represented in the exercise by
the Udaloy class destroyer Marshal Shaposhnikov, which specializes in
anti-submarine warfare; the Sovremenny class destroyer Burny; the BDK-11, a
large amphibious landing ship capable of deploying 25 armored vehicles and up to
225 troops; the tanker Pechenga; the rescue tug SB-522; and a Kilo class
diesel-electric submarine.
Chinese forces participating in the maneuvers include about 10,000 troops and
staffs, various ground forces' weapons systems, dozens of Russian-made Su-27
"Flanker" air superiority fighters and Su-30MKK "Flanker-C"
multi-role fighters, coastal artillery and missile batteries, two Russian-made
Sovremenny class destroyers, several surface warships -- some of which will
carry amphibious means -- and two Russian-built Romeo and Kilo class diesel
submarines. Two Chinese-built Luhai class destroyers comparable to the U.S.
Aegis destroyers also could participate.
Peace Mission 2005's many purposes become apparent in an analysis of the
maneuvers' theater and scenario. Choosing a sea and coastal theater shows that
Moscow and Beijing are concerned with the well being of not only their
landlocked Central Asian allies but also of other friendly states in coastal
areas.
The scenario of Russo-Chinese military operations always has been a nightmare
for Washington. The Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s was crucial to the United
States' success in the Cold War. An overall strategic and military alliance
between Russia and China would pose a very serious threat to U.S. dominance. The
joint exercises are intended to send a very loud message to Washington meant to
deter further geopolitical encroachment on Moscow and Beijing's spheres of
influence.
The exercises betray Beijing and Moscow's strategic concerns that if the U.S.
geopolitical offensive is not checked, eventually all of Russia and China's
allies in the region will turn pro-U.S., as Russia has seen happen in the FSU
with a series of pro-Western "revolutions." Apparently at their early
July summit in Moscow, Putin and Hu decided that the time had come to stop
retreating and take a stand against further U.S. moves by resisting new
"revolutions" -- a decision that translates into armed confrontations.
To overthrow current FSU governments, opposition movements will have to use
force, such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan recently saw. Though Moscow and
Beijing's allies feel they can quell armed uprisings on their own, China and
Russia fear the United States will offer opposition movements military support.
Thus, the exercises include a scenario in which a hypothetical ally asks Beijing
and Moscow for help to defeat an internal uprising and fend off U.S.
intervention into the conflict on behalf of the armed opposition. According to
Russian military sources, in the first two days of the exercises, high-level
staff officers will not only participate in war games on the sea but also will
participate in scenarios using Central Asian maps -- a reflection of the fact
that China and Russia feel the most geopolitical pressure from the United States
there.
Though joint military training and coordination are certainly required if China
and Russia are to jointly fight armed separatists in a weaker third country, it
is even more important if they are to ever jointly fight the world's most
high-tech force: the United States. Geopolitics dictates that no matter what a
country's relations with other major players are, that country should prepare to
confront those other players in case of a threat to national interests. Thus, no
matter when or whether it will happen, all major powers train their armed forces
to fight major potential enemies. Even U.S. forces, with their involvement in
Iraq and Afghanistan, still find time to conduct exercises with missile test
launches and develop new conventional and nonconventional strategic weapons
systems that have little use in counterinsurgency operations, but would be
needed in a confrontation with China and Russia.
Beijing and Moscow are no different. Chinese and Russian troops will use
high-tech weapons in the air and naval portions of the exercises as part of
their training for a hypothetical battle against a highly sophisticated enemy
such as the United States. The contingency part of Peace Mission 2005 is not
limited to training Russian and Chinese armed forces to fight together against
the United States. The sophisticated amphibious and airborne operations and
anti-ship maneuvers could serve as training for either joint or unilateral
operations in other scenarios -- conflicts against Taiwan, Japan, further
clashes over the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea or over the
energy riches of the Caspian Sea or other areas. These conflicts are unlikely in
the near future but are not inconceivable further down the road.
Building a Sino-Russian military alliance implies not only joint training on
fighting together but also arming China with modern Russian weapons that would
increase Beijing's chances to fare well in a possible confrontation with U.S.
forces -- over Taiwan or in another scenario. Russia must send Beijing more
modern arms with greater firepower than Beijing has received so far. All
indications are that Peace Mission 2005 will serve to showcase Russian weaponry
to the Chinese military, which already is Russia's largest client for weapons
sales. In 2004, Russia transferred more than $1.4 billion of hardware to China,
including more Su-30MKK fighters and a Kilo class diesel-electric submarine.
China and Russia already have contracted for more weapons -- and it seems more
powerful weapons have been added to the plate.
Tasks, Weapons and Major Focus
The exercises' goals, including showcasing specific modern weapons, are
reflected in specific tasks the Chinese and Russian forces will perform.
Though the maneuvers do not officially start until Aug. 18, they unofficially
began Aug. 13. The unofficial stage, which will end Aug. 16, is in the Yellow
Sea off Qingdao, a major Chinese naval base located in Shandong province. Six
Russian warships and a large number of Chinese warships, including diesel
submarines (nuclear subs are unlikely to participate because of the area's
shallow water), are training on executing a joint cruising and combat order
while going to high seas, and on blockading a coast occupied by hostile forces.
At this stage, the main focus is for the Chinese People's Liberation Army's Navy
(PLAN) to learn from its Russian counterpart how to better operate and maneuver
modern naval ships in order to maximize the use of the high-tech Russian ships
PLAN currently has, including submarines and missile destroyers. Meanwhile, the
Russians are gaining experience in cooperating with China's navy and getting an
idea of what PLAN -- which is striving to develop blue-water capabilities -- can
do at sea.
The second stage will take place on Russian territory, in the Far Eastern
Military District. Both countries' chiefs of general staff -- Russia's General
of the Army Yuri Baluyevsky and Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Col. Gen.
Liang Guanglie -- will officially open the exercises. Then map and
computer-simulated staff exercises down to the regimental level will be
conducted Aug. 18-19. Though less spectacular than other stages, this is a
crucial part of the maneuvers; Russia and China's strategic planners and
commanders from operational to tactical levels will gain experience in jointly
planning and executing wargames against what effectively could be U.S. and pro-U.S.
forces. In modern warfare, it is strategically important to have coordination
and understanding among commanders and staffs from different countries.
During the third stage, Aug. 20-22, at China's request the Russians will
demonstrate a beyond-horizon landing operation, with the enemy played by several
Chinese and Russian submarines, aircraft and surface ships. Russian striking
forces headed by the Marshal Shaposhnikov will engage the "enemy" by
imitating naval strikes and executing electronic warfare and maneuvering,
thereby clearing the way for the BDK-11 landing ship to deliver ashore a
reinforced Russian marine company with amphibious armored vehicles and artillery
to take a beachhead. Simultaneously, a reinforced paratrooper company with armor
and artillery from the Russian 76th Airborne Division will airdrop behind
"enemy" front lines. PLAN marines and PLA paratroopers might join
Russian colleagues in this training coastal assault, while Chinese-built SH-5
could imitate dropping depth charges and torpedoes to help the attack. Chinese
armor, infantry and coast artillery units will play the defenders. This stage's
special significance is that the Russians' complex beyond-horizon landing
operation -- effectively a combined arms operation with participation of forces
from all armed services -- will be a complete revelation for the Chinese, giving
them a first virtual modern experience of how to invade Taiwan.
Stage four, slated for Aug. 23-26, will consist of anti-shipping operations.
Strategically, this is perhaps the most important stage. Here, the Chinese will
observe some of Russia's most powerful airborne weapons in action during
live-fire exercises. These exercises are designed to demonstrate the denial of
territorial waters to an enemy navy -- another signal that Washington will hear
loud and clear. Two Tu-95MS "Bear" bombers will launch long-range
standoff missiles, probably the Kh-55 and 3M80 "Sunburn" anti-ship
missiles. Originally designed as a strategic bomber in the 1950s, the Tu-95 has
long since been adapted to perform long-range anti-shipping missions,
specifically against aircraft carrier groups. It has been constantly upgraded
and modified to carry various anti-ship missiles and guided munitions. It is
possible that the "Bears" will deploy their guided munitions in this
exercise. The four Tu-22M3 "Backfire" bombers most likely will deploy
the same weapons, while the Su-27SM "Flanker" multi-purpose jets will
demonstrate how they destroy the "enemy" planes that have taken off
from aircraft carriers.
Stratfor has obtained satellite imagery showing that the incomplete Soviet-era
aircraft carrier Varyag has been moved from its dry-dock at China's Dalian naval
base. The carrier had spent two years moored to a dock but was moved to a
dry-dock in April 2005, where major
repair and refurbishment operations have been undertaken. As of Aug. 13, the
Varyag had been relocated to a dock. That the carrier has been moved twice in
the last four months after spending two years idle could indicate that the
Chinese are preparing to use it as a target, perhaps posing as a U.S. aircraft
carrier heading a group of warships, during the live-fire portion of the
exercise. There are two likely scenarios if this happens. The first -- and more
spectacular -- is that the ship will be destroyed in the exercise by Russian
air- or sea-launched anti-ship missiles. The second scenario is that the Varyag
will not be destroyed but simply aimed at by the Chinese and Russian aircraft
and missile destroyers. This would preserve the Varyag for future exercises.